Sometime next year it is reasonable to expect that Microsoft will release the next Xbox. Although very little is known about it there is plenty to go on based on the current console and on rumours and reports surrounding the new console. I'm going to go right ahead and predict that, at least compared to the Wii U and PS4, it is doomed. There are a number of reasons for it but, ultimately, I don't think it has a hope in competing with its rivals.
For starters Microsoft, compared to Sony and Nintendo, have very few exclusives, so there is less incentive to buy the new Xbox, their main exclusives are Forza, Fable, Halo and Gears of War. Gears of War is over, Fable has never lived up to its potential, Halo hasn't been great since the third one and there are plenty of racers that are as good as Forza, so why buy an Xbox based on its exclusives? It just doesn't make any sense. It's ok though, they'll churn out some new and good exclusives won't they?
No actually, they are far too focused on Kinect for that. Kinect has given them a new lease of life and because they see that it is a money making run away success they have been, and will likely continue to neglect their hardcore audience and focus on Kinect, which means no new exclusives for their core fans and even less of a reason to buy their next console.
The Kinect issue is wider than this however, Kinect has brought them a huge chunk of the casual games market but it can't last for ever. With tablet and smartphone based gaming on the rise casual gaming is changing, also Nintendo are giving the Wii U backwards compatibility and so will still dominate the casual console gaming market.
The biggest mistake Microsoft seem likely to make however is the exclusion of used games. I have recently discussed this in a post below so I won't go into the fine details of the decision here but if Sony and Nintendo don't follow suit, and Nintendo have already shown with the Wii U that they won't, then Microsoft will have shut themselves out of a huge part of gaming and will also have harmed their reputation, not to the mention the games industry, in an irreversible way.
Of course I might be proven wrong but with what we have to go on at the moment that seems unlikely. Ultimately though this is mere speculation and opinion and I will, hopefully, be proven wrong. I want the new Xbox to succeed, it just seems unlikely that it will.